UFC® 74: Respect
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Mandalay Bay Events Center
Las Vegas, NV

By Stephen Quadros, “The Fight Professor”

On The Not So Scientific Art Of Picking Winners

I have always enjoyed writing this column because it makes me take a long look at what’s happening in the world of American pay per view MMA events, which these days means the UFC® exclusively (the owners of the UFC, the Fertitta brothers, devoured their competition, the ‘other’ MMA pay per view event, Pride, last year).

So here we are in 2007: the sport is mainstream and the athletes are much more evolved. But in that evolution comes the uncertainty of predicting who will prevail in any given contest. Longtime UFC® matchmaker Joe Silva has done such an outstanding job on putting together contests that have defied even the best odds makers.

I have had a fairly good run of picking winners…until lately. What were once bankable ‘sure things’ have left every betting man cautious (personally, I don’t bet on fights). It’s surely the era of the upset: Matt Serra topples St. Pierre (I picked Georges), Randy Couture comes out of retirement and snatches Tim Sylvia’s heavyweight title (I went with “The Maine-iac”) and Cro Cop receiving some of his own medicine when he was KO’d with a head kick by Gabriel Gonzaga (I figured if the Brazilian was to win it would be with a ground game). It was now clear that all bets were off, we were clearly in the ‘age or upsets’, or more succinctly the ‘era of unpredictability’.

One more thing that will further put all this in perspective, I must recall a conversation in which a man in the MMA business asked me who I thought would win a particular match between two well known fighters, one of who was a bit of a smack talker. I told him whom I felt would be victorious and then he proceeded, with a straight face, to ask me who I HOPED would win. He seemed baffled at what I said next: I told him that I did not care who won, that I hoped that the best man would come out on top. You see, when I give analysis and/or predict who I feel will prevail in a contest it is not based who I HOPE will win, who is a “nicer” guy, who is more popular or “famous”, it based on as much objectivity as I can put forth in rendering a non-personal, professional OPINION.

Which brings to mind…

My latest phobia, the fear of my picking the 'wrong guy' again, will be overcome. “Right” or “wrong” my first reaction when they announced this fight was Gonzaga by TKO mid way through. But then the ghosts of the recent ‘era of the upset’ started to infect my brain. It didn't help that I spoke with Randy (Couture) in San Jose during the Shamrock/Baroni Strikeforce event and he made a solid case on where he felt Gabriel weaknesses lie and how he planned to exploit them. Couture is one of those characters that, right when you write him off because of age, size, whatever, comes back and reminds you why he is so revered. He has proven the naysayers wrong on so many occasions that even the most seasoned oddsmakers shudder when his name is announced as a combatant. Still I have to go with my original assessment: GG by TKO. “Respect” couldn’t be more appropriate…and that isn’t always about something that happens in a cage. After his UFC® debut in November 2005 Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga was mostly remembered for his less than lukewarm performance against Kevin Jordan (UFC® 56). Until Gonzaga rallied and scored with the old light switch KO in the fight’s final seconds, it had been a dreadfully boring match. But the behind the scenes scenario that the jiu-jitsu black belt had to face before the Jordon match was far more of a problem than his opponent was. Gabriel’s wife was pregnant with twins, the twins developed complications that threatened their lives and the life of the soon-to-be Mother. In a life and death situation they were forced to give emergency birth after only seven months. The Mother and one daughter survived. This was all in the weeks leading up to the biggest moment in the fighter’s life, fighting for the first time in the US, making his UFC® debut. Even though he was faced with such dire circumstances, and the lack of training he had because he stayed at his wife’s side, Gabriel refused to leave the promoters hanging and cancel his appearance. He fought anyway…and prevailed. People who did not know about the heavy weight on his shoulders prior to facing Jordan wrote Gabriel off. Even after he returned to the Octagon® and TKO’d Fabiano Scherner (UFC® 60) and submitted the previously unbeaten Carmelo Marrero in the first round (UFC® 66) he just couldn’t get “respect”. …Until April 21st, 2007. The stage was being set for Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, the Pride 2006 Open Weight Tournament champion, to soon challenge for the UFC® heavyweight title. After one more fight the Croatian would get his chance at the gold. His opponent: Gabriel Gonzaga. Most experts gave the Brazilian no chance against the former K-1 competitor, who was now widely heralded as MMA’s deadliest striker. But this particular piece of “reality” didn’t go according to the script. Gonzaga slapped the critics by walking right through Mirko’s much celebrated takedown defense and putting him on the floor and dominating through most of the first round. Then there was a standup late in the round. Cro Cop ‘single bullet theory’ left roundhouse kick could still get the job done many thought. Mirko and the rest of the world did not expect what was to happen next: with mere seconds remaining Gabriel decided to shot off his own Scud missile…the right roundhouse kick. The kick landed with so much force to Filipovic’s head that he was out before he crash-landed on the deck. Shocking? Yes. The world was now FORCED to take Gabriel seriously. Randy Couture is not the kind of fighter to underestimate an opponent, especially when each fight could be his last. At 44 he is unique, beyond what George Foreman accomplished in boxing. Couture has faced and beaten more top-level opponents than George did in his post 40 career. But Gonzaga is going to be a problem for “The Natural”, a BIG problem. Gabriel Gonzaga has never gone the distance in a fight. All his wins have been by TKO or submission and his only loss was in the third round to one of the world’s best, Fabricio Werdum. Couture will be facing a man (in Gonzaga) whose will is equal to his, whose body is 17 years younger (Gabriel is 28), a man who has seen the darkest end of the tunnel and still found his way back, a man who is getting stronger each time out and a man who is peaking right now, both mentally and physically. I’ve said it a million times, Randy IS a legend, a title he more than deserves. To me he is the greatest champion I have ever seen in the UFC®. Randy will always be a competitor in his heart and that spirit is what drove him out of retirement to take on Tim Sylvia and got his title. But Gonzaga is no Sylvia. This could be a titanic battle…for a while, but I predict Gonzaga will stop Randy Couture in a fight that resembles The Natural’s clashes with Ricco Rodriguez and Josh Barnett.

Contrarily (to my gut feeling on Randy versus Gabriel), when I first heard about the Koscheck/St. Pierre match I thought that Josh should be favored simply based on his unstoppable wrestling. I thought Josh should be able to “Antonio McKee” (that’s a verb) Georges to a decision. The only chink in that theory is that a healthy Georges will be a problem. And a motivated Georges is an even bigger problem. If he hadn't gone and riled Georges up and given him a reason to make it personal, it's a match that Koscheck should have won. But the Canadian has a real good batting average in fights where his opponent tries to stir him up with "trash talk" (Trigg, Hughes#2). And Josh LOVES to talk… So far he’s questioned Georges heart and criticized his fight with BJ Penn. It’s true that BJ smashed up Georges pretty good in the first round (St. Pierre rallied to take the decision), but Josh would be exaggerating if he was implying he has the same kind of standup that “The Prodigy” has. The war of words, even though it may be a little one-sided (Koscheck is doing most of the talking), is great for building interest. Muhammad Ali was the quintessential smack talker, mainly because he would back up (most of the time) his boasts and taunts. But can Josh Koscheck do that here? It’s definitely a possibility, because he has evolved noticeably under Crazy Bob Cook and Javier Mendez at San Jose’s American Kickboxing Academy. On paper this is a great match and not an easy one to call with complete certainty. But I’m not one to hold back and am going to go with Georges St. Pierre on this one. Why? I see St. Pierre as being a better fighter overall.

Stephen Quadros, "The Fight Professor", has worked as a host and play-by-play commentator for some of the world's greatest fight organizations including: PRIDE, K-1 and Inoki Bom Ba Ye. He currently balances his activities between acting, working as a analyst/color commentator for ShoXC (Showtime), Cage Rage (UK), the International Fight League (IFL) on Fox Sports Net and MyNetwork TV, hosting his own radio show at Sherdog.com (every Tuesday at 12 noon PST), choreographing fight scenes for feature films and playing drums for the bands Snow and Whipped Cream. Visit Mr. Quadros on the worldwide web at: www.StephenQuadros.com or MySpace.com/StephenQuadros.