Matt Serra (Challenger)

Anytime Georges “Rush” St. Pierre steps in to fight these days, it’s a special event. In his rout of Matt Hughes last November the Canadian proved that he is not only among the elite in the sport, but arguably at the top of that list. To me only Fedor Emelianenko can currently give St. Pierre a run for the coveted, yet intangible, title known as best “pound-for-pound” fighter in MMA.

When Georges beat Matt (Hughes) it was like watching young Muhammed Ali topple Sonny Liston; a breakout performance at the perfect time, against a longtime, dominant force. It was truly one for the ages.

So as he goes into his next match, in which his UFC® welterweight belt is on the line for challenger Matt Serra to grab, what can we imagine would be compelling about it? Matt Hughes had beaten Georges once previously (by submission), trashed Royce Gracie and twice submitted Frank Trigg. Matt Serra’s career was given new life by barely beating Shonie Carter and Chris Lytle, both by decision.

It seems to me that this contest is a mere formality to honor the promised prize of the winner of fourth season of The Ultimate Fighter TV series getting a shot at the championship. The spot was earned the new-fashioned way, by being on television (and of course winning the elimination).

And I really liked Matt Serra as a coach on TUF. He was supportive, engaging and cared about those he helped. Week after week I would think to myself, about Serra “That guy would be great to train with.” Sparkling TV personalities definitely help sell tickets but unfortunately they don’t necessarily translate into winning fights against Georges St. Pierre.

To sugarcoat this, UFC® “The Unthinkable” may be a better title for this show because the chances for the title changing hands are, at best, a long shot

On paper this is not going to be competitive. Serra, like middleweight Travis Lutter, the “other” TUF 4 winner, will be in for a rude awakening. He does not have the speed, strength, diversity or confidence to beat St. Pierre. And that’s nothing to be ashamed of because not many people on the planet (no one?) does at this moment in time.

If Georges is on his game and relatively un-injured this could be over in the first round. And that IS taking into account the fact that Serra has only been stopped once before and is, if anything, a survivor. A key point to remember, Matt Serra has never faced a striker the level of St. Pierre.

We all know how motivated Georges was to destroy Matt Hughes and end that match within the time limit because of all the caustic pre-fight declarations and taunts made by the then champion (Hughes). There is no rivalry here though. So in theory, because Serra has not talked smack like Hughes did, there’s the possibility of the sympathy angle; meaning that St. Pierre may take it easy on the challenger and let him go the distance.

Either way, if you are relatively new to the sport of MMA, the final outcome will be just what you wanted: a one-sided beating…on television.
 

Vs.

Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia

The match between Roger Huerta and Leonard Garcia is relevant on multiple levels: first, it will draw locals and put butts in seats (Huerta and Garcia are both from Texas) and secondly, they both have only one loss each on their records and thirdly, it’s a clash of styles (Roger favors winning with strikes and Leonard likes to choke people out).

“El Matador” has several advantages going into this: he’s already fought in the big show (UFC®) twice and may be the fresher of the two because he hasn’t been fighting as long as “Bad Boy” (Garcia started his MMA career in 1999).

I will pick Huerta because of the above two items, along with the fact that he has faced a higher level of competition (Brad Blackburn, Melvin Guillard, Ryan Schultz) than Garcia has. The winner will soon be a force in the lightweight division.

Vs.

Josh "Kos" Koscheck

Even though the fight does not appear on each man’s official fight record Diego Sanchez and Josh Koscheck have already faced each other. The scene was in the first season of TUF (The Ultimate Fighter) and Sanchez won a clear-cut decision. So this welterweight bout represents a rematch of sorts.

One thing is for sure; Diego Sanchez has been on a roll. Boasting an undefeated record (Sherdog 17-0, UFC® 18-0) “The Nightmare” has delivered non-stop action in decisioning top tier guys like Nick Diaz and Karo Parisyan and in knocking out Joe Riggs.

Josh Koscheck has had similar luck lately, even though he dropped a match in 2005 when he was chocked out by Drew Fickett.

Both fighters come from a background of getting things done on the floor: Koscheck is a highly decorated wrestler and Sanchez honed his jiu-jitsu when competing in Abu Dhabi. And each man has worked tirelessly to improve what many thought to be their weakness: their standup striking.

To me, Sanchez has made more gains as a fighter. He has faced better competition and is coming off an aggressive KO of Joe Riggs, which would clearly indicate that his striking is now something his adversaries have to take seriously. Koscheck vastly has improved under the tutelage of Crazy Bob Cook at AKA (American Kickboxing Academy). But I just can’t see him beating Sanchez right now.

Vs.

Mike "Quick" Swick

Mike Swick really has his hands full in this one. Yushin Okami is by far the best fighter from Japan campaigning in the UFC® currently. And he has never lost in the American organization either. His UFC® record includes TKOs TUF alumni Rory Singer and Kalib Starnes and a decision win against Alan Belcher.

We all know Mike’s game is strikes and the lighting velocity that he delivers them at. But how sound is his ground game? We will find out in this match.

Okami is a big step for Swick. I cannot decide whom I favor here.
 

Vs.

Heath "The Texas Crazy Horse" Herring

YeeeHAW!

In many ways this is a do or die match for Herring. Imagine, just six years ago he was near the top, a big star in Japan’s Pride organization, beating the likes of Tom Erikson and Mark Kerr and giving Rodrigo Nogueira all he could handle in a title fight.

Now he is, after coming off a decision loss in his UFC® debut to Jake O’Brien, up against a TUF runner up (Brad Imes), who could very well derail the Texan’s dreams of being relevant in, his “new home,” the UFC® heavyweight division. All this in front of a hometown crowd? Yikes.

Providing Imes is not nursing any training injuries he should be able to grind out the decision here.
 

Vs.

Pete "Drago" Sell

It’s good to see Pete Sell back in the UFC®ß. I like the kid. But he has a hell of a task in Thales Leites. “Drago” will be tough but I lean towards Leites, most likely by decision.

 

Vs.

Luke "The Silent Assassin" Cummo

Personality-wise this is a real treat. Josh is raw and unapologetically aggressive. Cummo comes off like the quiet, but deadly scientist who is working on the perfect formula to shut down his opposition. This will be fun.