Vs.

Brock Lesnar (Challenger)

UFC Heavyweight Championship

Drama...the ability to create tension, that builds interest beyond the norm. An aging legend against a big strong guy whose personality draws attention is a good starting point. But the forgotten thing in the lead up to Randy Couture defending his ‘non-interim’ heavyweight championship against Brock Lesnar, and the thing that will most likely, and deliberately, be forgotten is Couture’s recent “vacation” from the UFC. Randy quit the company over money issues and the legal battle looked to possibly drag on for years. But he’s back and everybody’s smiles (at least in public). What effect will that back-story have on this match? And did that have any bearing on putting big Brock in a title shot with ‘The Natural’ after only 3 MMA fights?

The answer to both those questions and the “ultimate” gossip deflator is...probably not.

If I were a numerologist, which set of figures would matter to me the most? 16-8 versus 2-1...220 versus 265...or 45 versus 31? While two of these sets of digits, the weight and age, favor Brock Lesnar, the experience is the one area that is very hard to overcome...on paper. Besides the obvious muscle memory a veteran fighter has of his physical tools and how they have been forged under battle into weapons of success in combat, experience is mostly a mental edge that can’t be faked or bluffed. It’s like a well-built roll cage in a NASCAR vehicle, a bankable insurance policy. So bankable in fact that you can forget all about it – it will handle itself. In the advent that this fight goes past two rounds, Brock Lesnar will have that haunting feeling creeping into the back of his mind that he’s in a fight with Randy Couture, the greatest champion ever in the UFC.

Many observers point to two things that would theoretically play into Couture’s favor: Randy beat a big guy in Tim Sylvia and that Frank Mir submitted Lesnar. Let’s look deeper into those things – Tim Sylvia is a tall, gangly man who is not particularly fast on his feet with a big punch from the outside. Randy’s perfectly executed gameplan worked because the thought of his wrestling advantage no doubt lurked in the back of Tim’s mind, leaving him vulnerable to the unexpected boxing game that Couture initiated.

Mir is known as one of the best submission men in MMA at his weight. Yet Brock was hammering Frank to pieces until an errant blow to the back of Mir’s head caused the referee to step in and restart the fight. Mir capitalized but securing the fight winning kneebar.

While Randy hasn’t proven to be a Mir on the ground (Couture only has two submission in 24 fights, one of them 11 years ago), Lesnar is a completely different animal than Sylvia - he’s FAST, hungry and is a better wrestler than Randy is.

If Lesnar can fight with the abandon that he unleashed in his fight with Frank Mir, combined with the ‘pick your shots’ patience he learned on the job while fighting Heath Herring, he should win this by going by the numbers already established by Ricco Rodriguez and Josh Barnett, both of who won against Couture by TKO - take Randy down, get top position and drill him. But the longer the fight goes however, the harder it will be for Lesnar to do what he does best, put his opponent on his back. Couture is definitely going to want to take this fight into the deep waters of the fourth and fifth rounds. There he will be able to test the chin, cardio and heart of the former pro-wrestler.

It’s hard for me to pick against Randy because he’s bucked the odds so many times in the past. But...I pick Brock Lesnar to win by ground and pound/ref stoppage, most likely in the second round.
 

Vs.

Joe Stevenson

Kenny Florian is riding high at the moment, fresh off his stellar performance/unanimous decision win against Roger Huerta in August. Known as a formidable jiu-jitsu black belt with excellent Muay Thai, Kenny seems to improve every fight in terms of his entire game and skill level. His attitude is that of a winner. Breaking his spirit is something that no one has ever been able to do.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson at 26 years old has already had a long career of 37 fights (29-8) that began in 1999. And in his second to last fight he had his will tested and battered courtesy of BJ Penn (Penn dominated and finished with a second round rear naked choke).

Florian will present the same types of problems that Yves Edwards did (Stevenson was trailing on the cards but won via a second round cut). But trading elbows with Kenny Florian would not be wise, even on the ground.

I just cannot see Stevenson derailing the KenFlo bandwagon and predict Florian wins by decision.
 

Amir Sadollah

Vs.

Nick Catone

Nick Catone comes in with an unblemished 5-0 record against weak competition, sporting 3 TKOs and 1 submission along the way. His opponent, Amir Sadollah, is one in a million, a guy who won The Ultimate Fight series finale with no previous professional MMA experience (he had 4 amateur fights)! I can’t help but be amazed at Sadollah and how original his approach to dealing with the pressure of fighting on the big show on TV is. If he was nervous he surely hid it well. Call it a hunch; but I feel Amir will win by submission.

Vs.

Josh Hendricks

Josh Hendricks has a fairly decent 15-4 record with 10 submission victories. But upon closer perusal of the competition he has faced the word “who?” comes up. Gabriel Gonzaga is the man who knocked out Cro Cop and stood toe-to-toe in pitched, albeit losing battles with Fabricio Werdum and Randy Couture. He needs a win right now and he’ll get just that, by going back to his jiu-jitsu roots and securing a submission.