Vs.

Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk (Challenger)

Since the UFC reintroduced the lightweight division, after a nearly two year absence, Sherk and Penn’s name have been consistently in the hat as far as guys who could or would be the top guy at that weight, “if” they ever held a title fight again. But no one really thought that there would be the kind of combustion and animosity that has grown between the two.

It is a well-documented fact that Sherk was stripped of his title for using steroids, an accusation he vehemently denies. I had Sean on my old radio show last year at Sherdog.com and he made a good and passionate case. Unfortunately the California state athletic commission didn’t see it that way and levied Sherk with a fine of $2,500 and suspended him for six months (his original suspension was for a year but that was later reduced). So when BJ poured salt on the wound and openly challenged and derided the validity of Sherk’s claim of innocence, well, Penn was off “The Muscle Shark’s” Christmas list...and the grudge angle was born in the realm of two fighters who hadn’t really ever been known as ‘smack talkers’.

In the fight business, it is a well know fact that publicly exhibited personal animosity towards your opponent will get a fighter paid more than when two humble masters “compare their skills in a friendly contest”. Every third article I used to write back in the 1990s and the early part of this decade used to harp on the fact that fighters for the most part lacked the personalities and/or heat to make their clashes compelling to NON-hardcore fans. But here it is nearly a decade later and many of these ‘grudge matches’ are almost too nice and neat, where it seems like the fighters are inadvertently following the prototypical scripts pioneered by Ken Shamrock, and later Tito Ortiz and Phil Baroni.

I’m sure the “ill will” between Penn and Sherk is real, but for some reason it almost seems out of place in this particular fight. But maybe I am overanalyzing this. Both Sean and BJ are relatively laid back guys, who will speak their minds if pushed. Neither will ‘back down’. I doubt they manufactured the whole “he really doesn’t like the other guy” angle. Still it seems little foreign here from my vantage point.

On a technical level, Penn is anything but one-dimensional. His MAT, “multiple areas of threat” (® Fight Professor, May 2008) are known around the world: world champion in Brazilian jiu-jits, heavy hands and sound enough balance and wrestling to where opponents think twice about expending the effort trying for a takedown. Cardio has always been an area of criticism for “The Prodigy”. But his training for Sherk has been focused on putting that suspicion behind him.

Sherk on the other hand comes from a wrestling base and has always exhibited an almost hummingbird-like work rate that overwhelms most of his opponents. Sean’s quickness, strength and endurance athletically places him above, if not beyond most of his competitors.

Both these guys are definitely championship material and both will present the other with their toughest challenge stylistically. Experience will not be an issue because they have both fought the best and have several common opponents:

Georges St. Pierre
-(March 2006) BJ smacked up Georges pretty good in the first round only to gas and lose on a split decision.
-(November 2005) Sean gave St. Pierre problems standing but succumbed to ground & pound in the second.

Matt Hughes
-(April 2003) Sherk went the distance with Hughes when nobody else could, then was released from the UFC for almost three years. His welcome back party was fighting St. Pierre (ouch!).
-(January 2004) Penn stepped up from lightweight and toppled the king with a rear naked choke in round one.
-(September 2006) Penn was in complete control early until suffering a rib injury that caused him to get stopped by G&P in round three.

So what do these stats tell us? Not much - those kinds of ‘facts’ are usually just set dressing to placate those who choose to over-think and grasp the intangibles of an MMA fight.

But to me BJ Penn and Sean Sherk may match up so well style-wise that they shut each other down offensively. There is the strong possibility that this will NOT be fight of the year as a result.

If cardio is not an issue (translation: Penn can match Sherk wind wise) then I see BJ Penn winning this...by decision. But if BJ gets tired, he will be another in a long list of men who got out hustled by “The Muscle Shark”.

But then the bigger question looms to those actually informed on “the sport”: where does the winner of Penn/Sherk stack up against the ‘other’ best lightweights in the world - JZ Calvancante, Shinya Aoki, Gilbert Melendez, Eddie Alvarez, etc. a

Vs.

Wanderlei "The Axe Murder" Silva

Keith Jardine’s momentum was momentarily derailed when he walked into a crushing right hand, two fights back, courtesy of Houston Alexander. The embarrassing 48-second first round loss was something that many would not rebound from. In his very next fight the going wouldn’t get any easy as ‘The Dean’ faced former UFC light-heavyweight champion Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell. Keith looked a lot better against Chuck than his split-decision victory would indicate. So putting him in with the “Ax Murderer” can be looked at two ways: a) further not doing him any favors or b) setting him up on a fast track to a title shot. One could also surmise that after losing a gutsy one to Liddell, the UFC was throwing Silva to the (new) lions by having him fight Jardine.

Either way, I cannot fathom how this match could be anything but a knockdown, drag out standup war that pits the hurky jerky crab-like style of Jardine against the straight ahead windmill bulrush of Wanderlei Silva. I’ve seen Keith get KO’d but I have never seen anyone low kick Silva...yet. Jardine’s movement is one of his keys to setting things up. Wanderlei is easy to find because he is usually standing right in front of you. But in his availability, and we all know he CAN be hit, he is also in range to knock you out.

You don’t get “lucky” and beat Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell, and Jardine did just that. Silva needs a win to remain relevant and maybe to even remain IN the UFC. But I see Jardine’s elusiveness being a problem Wandy will not be able to solve the puzzle with his characteristic brutality, so I pick Keith Jardine to win by judge’s decision.

Vs.

Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz