The UFC heads back across the pond to the O2 arena in London, England to bring us their 6th event in 2 months with UFC 95 in which two former “TUF” champions will square off in a lightweight battle that could have future title implications. Also squaring off is Middleweight contender, and former King of Pancrase Nate “The Great” Marquardt taking on the heavy handed Wilson Goveia.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson vs. Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez

Making is debut at 155lb, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez is coming off of back to back wins against Luigi Fioravanti and David Bielkheden. Sanchez was scheduled to fight current top Welterweight contender Thiago Alves in October at UFC 90, however Sanchez had to pull out at the last minute due to an injury suffered while training.

Stevenson last competed at UFC 91 in November where he suffered a rather one-sided submission loss to top Lightweight contender Kenny Florian. Prior to that, Stevenson had competed for the vacant Lightweight title against current champion BJ Penn, and despite a valiant effort, was submitted via rear naked choke (the same way Florian submitted him) in the second round.

This fight is really a toss up for me since both competitors really need this victory if either of them hopes to see gold in their future.  Sanchez is coming cutting roughly 40lbs to make the 155lb limit, whereas Stevenson has been competing at 155lbs for nearly 3 years. While Sanchez has stated that the weight cut has gone smoothly, I still believe that it’s going to be a factor at some point during this fight.

If Diego’s cut has gone as smoothly as he’s lead us to believe then I could easily see his aggressive style being too much for Stevenson to handle, however as I mentioned above, I just don’t see how dropping 40lbs won’t come into play, especially against someone as Stevenson who’s one of the bigger Lightweights in the UFC.

I predict both fights will come out strong, and Sanchez will look to end the fight early with some combos and takedown attempts. Stevenson has to play it smart on the feet since he’s never been known as one of the best strikers at 155lb, and Diego has shown that he’s capable of ending the night with one punch (ask Joe Riggs). At some point during the second round I see Sanchez starting to tire, and at that time Joe “Daddy” has to capitalize by taking Diego down and continuously pressuring him in order to further wear him out. During the third round I see Sanchez going into survival mode, and doing just enough to keep from getting submitted or TKO’d.

Winner: Joe Stevenson via decision

Chael Sonnen vs. Demian Maia

Let me just say this before I make my prediction. In his last fight, Chael Sonnen was robbed of his opportunity to become the WEC Middleweight champion. He showed up to fight that night, and it’s obvious that (then) current champion Paulo Filho not only didn’t care about making weight (thus making it a non-title fight), but also showed little respect for his camp with the sloppy performance he put on that night.

Having said that, I think that Sonnen will be looking to make a strong impact in the Middleweight division. The only problem is, he’s fighting arguably the best BJJ black belt in MMA; Demian Maia.

What Sonnen has going for him is his excellent wrestling background, and his ability to keep constant pressure on his opponents during his fights. What he needs to be most concerned about is stepping in the octagon against someone with a BJJ background like Maia’s. All 3 of Sonnen’s losses have come via submission to BJJ experts (although the loss to Filho can be disputed).

I see Sonnen coming in aggressive looking to throw a series of combos at Maia in order to keep him at bay. Maia, true to his past performances, will remain calm and look for his opportunity to strike. Once that opportunity presents itself, Maia will take Sonnen to the mat, and that’s where the rest of the fight will take place.

With Maia’s BJJ skills, I really don’t see this fight going any other way for Sonnen. Although he is a credible wrestler, he has had trouble in the past both defending the takedown, and taking his opponents down. Once on the ground, Sonnen will give a valiant effort to get back to his feet, but ultimately Maia’s slick jiu-jitsu game will be too much and he’ll rack up another loss via submission likely in the second round.

Winner: Demian Maia via submission

Nate Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

This fight is an easy contender for “Fight of the Night” honors. Both guys are coming off of impressive wins, however one has to tip their hat in favor of Marquardt’s one sided TKO victory of Martin Kampmann as the more impressive performance of the two.

A solid victory for either competitor could put them in the title picture almost immediately following the winner of the eventual Bisping/Henderson fight getting their shot against current UFC Middleweight champion Anderson Silva. In my opinion Marquardt is too big, and too well rounded for Gouveia. For his size (he’s one of the bigger 185lb competitors) Marquardt is incredibly quick. Combined with his well rounded skills, and obvious desire to get another title shot, Marquardt is going to be a lot for Gouveia to take on. While I know that everyone always has a “puncher’s chance” I would say that’s about all Gouveia has. I see Marquardt coming out much like he did against Kampmann; relentless pace, and devastating combos. Initially I think Gouveia will elect to trade with Marquardt thinking he has the better striking, however once he gets a taste of Nate’s speed mixed with his power, he’ll back off and leave himself open for Marquardt to land a barrage of punches to end the fight.

Winner: Nate Marquardt via TKO 1st round

Tags: MMA Preview

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