Former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson looks to get one step closer to regaining the title, but standing in his way is the man who’s beaten former champions Chuck Liddell, and Forrest Griffin: “The Dead of Mean” Keith Jardine. Also on the card is a Heavyweight showdown that could decide the next challenger for either Brock Lesnar or Frank Mir’s UFC Undisputed Heavyweight title.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson VS. “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine

Jardine and Rampage are both coming off of victories over big name opponents in their last fights, however Jardine’s razor thin split decision victory over Brandon Vera last October pales in comparison to Rampage’s devastating KO victory over former PRIDE rival Wanderlei Silva last December.

Both men have a lot of momentum leading into their March battle, however Rampage seems to have regained that killer instinct many thought he had lost in his fight with Forrest Griffin, and that could spell real trouble for “The Dean of Mean”.

While many would be quick to dismiss Jardine’s chances of winning this fight, I would have to disagree. Ever since appearing in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, Jardine has been the dark horse of the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division and holds victories over some of MMA’s biggest names (Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, and Brandon Vera). How anyone could count someone with a resume like that out of any fight is beyond me.

Rampage’s key to victory is to keep the pressure on Jardine. If his (Jardine) fight with Houston Alexander has taught us anything, it’s that Keith can tend to get a little overzealous once he feels he’s gained the upper hand. Quinton will need to keep the pressure on Jardine, and avoid those leg kicks that Keith has become known for.

For Jardine, the plan is simple. Utilize the leg kicks. Forrest Griffin wrote the book on how to take Rampage out of his game plan with well placed leg kicks, and I’d say that Jardine’s kicks are just as good if not better than Griffin’s. Keith comes from the famous Team Jackson who has become notorious for coming up with ways to defeat even the toughest opponents. (Greg) Jackson’s strategies have led his team to two UFC titles (Rashad Evans, and Georges St. Pierre), and victories over some of the biggest names in the UFC such as Chuck Liddell (twice), BJ Penn, Forrest Griffin, and Jens Pulver. Jackson will no doubt have a solid game plan in mind which would more than likely include staying away from any lengthy exchanges with Rampage.

It’s no secret that both men are going to want to stand and trade for the entire three rounds, however neither man can afford to get over confident as both Rampage and Jardine possess heavy hands, and can end the night for their opponent with a single punch. I think the fight will start off very slow, with Rampage walking Jardine down for most of the first round. Keith will no doubt want to test the waters and land a few of those previously mentioned leg kicks early on, so that Rampage isn’t able to plant his feet for the power shots in the second and third rounds.

While Keith would love a decisive victory over yet another former champion, he’s also not opposed to playing it safe en route to a decision victory (a win is a win right?). I see the second round playing out a lot like Rampage’s second fight with Chuck. He’ll stalk his opponent for the first minute, act frustrated, Jardine will take the bait, and Quinton will nail him with one of his patented left hooks.

Aside from his fight against Chuck Liddell, Jardine hasn’t faired well in exchanges against heavy hitters. Look at what happened in his fights with Houston Alexander, and Wanderlei Silva – and Rampage is no different. I see Rampage ending this one in the second round, and earning himself a title shot against new UFC Light Heavyweight champion, and fellow Team Jackson member “Sugar” Rashad Evans.

Winner: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson via 2nd round TKO.

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga VS. Shane Carwin

I’m actually more excited for this fight than any other on the card. Two of the biggest Heavyweights in the UFC are going to meet, with the winner of the fight likely to be granted a title shot sometime later in the year.

Both Carwin, and Gonzaga are true heavyweights coming in a 6’3”/262 and 6’2”/256 respectively. While most would expect this fight to be very slow paced due to the shear size of these guys, I expect the exact opposite. In all 10 of his professional fights, Carwin has been able to finish his opponent in the first round via either submission or KO. Likewise, Gonzaga has an equal amount of submissions and KO’s on his resume. Neither man has ever let a fight go to the judge’s, and I don’t expect this fight to be any different, especially with a potential title shot on the line.

I see both men coming out strong in the first round looking to make an example out of their opponent. Both guys have very heavy hands and could make it a short night with a single punch. In my opinion, Carwin will look to be the aggressor due to his reputation of ending fights in the first round. Gonzaga will look for opening and pick his shots, however I think Carwin’s power will prevent him from wanting to get into any long exchanges with the Colorado native.

I really don’t see this fight going past the first round. Although both men are well versed in submissions (both have an equal amount of submissions victories), I think both will elect to keep it on the feet and look for the KO.

While Gonzaga is an extremely tough opponent for anyone, his past 3 losses have all come against men with superior striking and footwork (Randy Couture, and Fabricio Werdum - twice). Carwin will look to use angles to cut Gonzaga off, and once he does, Carwin will let his hands go and eventually land a shot that will send Gonzana to the mat where he’ll finish finish him with some brutal ground and pound.

Winner: Shane Carwin via 1st round TKO.

Pete “Drago” Sell vs. Matt “The Immortal” Brown

Having recently made the drop from Middleweight to Welterweight, Pete “Drago” Sell will look to rack up his second win at  170 by taking out The Ultimate Fighter 7 contestant Matt Brown.

This is another fight I don’t expect to last very long since both guys love to stand and trade shots. While Sell is an extremely durable opponent, he’s currently 2-4 in the UFC, with 3 of his losses coming by TKO or KO. Both men would love to keep the fight standing and look for the KO, however I’d give the technical striking edge to Matt Brown.

Much like the Carwin vs. Gonzaga fight, I don’t expect this one to last long at all. Sell will come out as the aggressor, and I expect some pretty heavy exchanges early on in the bout. At some point mid-way through the first round Sell will start to drop his hands and look to throw haymakers. All Brown has to do his keep his hands up, continue to move, and land a well place shot to Sell’s exposed chin, which I think he will late in the first round.

Winner: Matt “The Immortal” Brown via 1st round KO.

Tags: MMA Book Instructionals

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