At UFC 91 (then) Heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture took on former WWE star Brock Lesnar in what was billed as the “biggest fight in UFC history.” The label didn’t really make sense to me at the time, and 3 months later it still doesn’t. I understand that the UFC hype machine goes into full effect with almost all of it’s cards, and on this particular card they pitted UFC champion Randy Couture (fresh off a year long hiatus) against rising MMA star Brock Lesnar, essentially grooming Lesnar to be the “next big thing” in the UFC. In my opinion it still didn’t make sense to refer to it as “the biggest fight in UFC history” when you’ve had matchups in recent years like Rampage vs. Henderson to unify the PRIDE and UFC 205lb titles, or even the 3-round war between Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva that took nearly 7 years to put together. In my opinion January 31st, 2009 will mark the single biggest fight in UFC history as they attempt to do something they’ve never done before by matching up not only two of the top fighters in the world, but pitting two current UFC champions against each other.

This is a rematch that has been nearly 3 years in the making, and arguably tops the second Liddell/Ortiz fight as the most highly anticipated rematch in UFC history.

The last time BJ Penn and Georges St. Pierre were in the Octagon together it was at UFC 58 in a 3-round battle that saw both fighters gain the upper hand at different points, however it was ultimately St. Pierre who emerged victorious via a razor thin split decision. At the time I felt that Penn had been the more active fighter and should have received the nod, however an argument could have been made either way. Following their fight at UFC 58 both St. Pierre and Penn would take on former UFC Welterweight champion Matt Hughes in two separate title fights that would yield drastically different results. In his title fight against Hughes, Penn suffered a broken rib (how this happened has been subject to much debate) and was subsequently TKO’d in the third round. Coming off of two back-to-back losses Penn would eventually drop down to the Lightweight division where he would avenge a 2002 loss to Jens Pulver, and continue to dominate his opponents until capturing the Lightweight crown (which had been vacated) in January of 2008.

While Penn was unable to defeat Hughes for a second time, it was St. Pierre who would eventually end Hughes’ two year reign as champion at UFC 65, stopping the former champion in dramatic fashion.

Since their 2006 fight both St. Pierre and Penn have gone on to dominate their respective weight classes. While both have had “hiccups” along the way (Penn’s loss to Hughes, and St. Pierre’s shocking upset loss to Matt Serra), St. Pierre and Penn have left no doubt in the minds of fans and critics alike that they are the top fighters at 170lbs and 155lbs. But how will they fair against each other in a rematch?

Personally, I think this fight is going to come down to who has the better conditioning. Following the Hughes fight Penn admitted that he could no longer rely on his raw talent to win fights, and that in order to become a champion, he needed to train like one. In the case of St. Pierre, conditioning has never seemed to come into play except in his fight against Jon Fitch at UFC 87 in which the champ seemed to slow down in the later rounds (it can be argued that this was due to GSP’s inability to finish off Fitch). While I would give the edge in conditioning to St. Pierre, I’m also the first to admit that if BJ shows up in shape it’s going to be a long night for St. Pierre (or a short one depending on how you look at it). On the feet I would give the technical advantage to Penn who’s showed improve standup, and the ability to not only take a punch, but pick apart his opponents striking.

Aside from the overall hype surrounding the fight, I am really looking forward to seeing St. Pierre’s wrestling and ability to take opponents down at will (his fights against Fitch, Koscheck, and Hughes come to mind) against Penn’s legendary flexibility and takedown defense. While St. Pierre is the superior wrestler, and possesses one of the quickest shoots in MMA, Penn has the superior BJJ and has shown that even if you’re able to get him down, keeping him down is a different story.

While it would be something to see Penn make UFC history, I personally feel that there are more exciting matches ahead if GSP wins (such as the fight with Alves, and the rumored “Super Fight” with Anderson Silva). At the end of the day I have to go with my gut and say that Penn’s quest to become the first double champion in UFC history will fall short. The bigger, stronger, and more athletic St. Pierre will prove too much for the Lightweight champion. While I feel that St. Pierre will once again emerge victorious, I don’t think it will come via KO, TKO or submission. I see GSP’s hand once again being raised, and Penn left with the same look of confusion and disbelief he had in their 2006 encounter.

Winner: Georges St. Pierre via unanimous decision.

While the Penn/St. Pierre fight has the hype of “champion vs. champion” surrounding it, this might be the match up a lot of people are equally as excited to see. Here you have two Brazilian fighters in the UFC’s most stacked division that have gone undefeated in each of their 13 fights. Originally slated to take place in October at UFC 89, the bout had to be re-scheduled due to Silva suffering an injury and being forced to pull out. Rather than accept a different fight against a new opponent, Machida chose to wait while Silva recovered knowing that a win over a fellow undefeated fighter could (and should) warrant him a title shot against current UFC Light Heavyweight champion Rashad Evans.

This has got to be one of the best matchups stylistically. In Machida you’ve got the calm, and technical fighter who has used his elusiveness to nullify all of his opponent’s game plans. In Silva, you’ve got the younger, and more aggressive fighter with world class ground skills. While both are 13-0, the majority of their respective wins have come in drastically different fashions with Machida earning a decision victory in 8 of his 13 fights, and Silva securing a win via KO, TKO, or submission in 12 of 13 fights.

An interesting note that could or could not affect the outcome of the fight is that neither Machida or Silva have competed since UFC 84: Ill Will in May of 2008. On that card Machida squared off against former UFC champion Tito Ortiz in a fight that went the distance and only saw Machida get into trouble once (Tito secured a triangle on him at the end of the final round). Silva took on Antonio Mendes, and was rocked in the opening seconds due to a head kick, however Silva managed to get the takedown and land several punches until Mendes tapped out.

While I can see this fight going either way, but like they say “someone’s 0 has got to go.” I personally feel that Silva will come out very aggressive looking to end the fight early. While Machida will fall back on his elusiveness, Silva will keep coming until he’s able to cut Machida off and force him into fighting his (Silva’s) fight. While Machida maybe be the technically better striker, Silva has the edge in the power department and if fights like Rashad vs. Chuck, or Rampage vs. Wanderlei 3 have shown us, it only takes one punch to end a fight.

Winner: Thiago Silva via 2nd round TKO.

Yet another fight I am really looking forward to (seems to be a pattern on this card doesn’t it?). Both fighters are coming off of impressive decision victories over Josh Neer (Diaz) and Mac Danzig (Guida), and know that walking away with a victory will put them closer to title contention.

At 6’0” Diaz has the obvious reach advantage. Combined with his impressive ground skills (Diaz holds a brown belt under Cesar Gracie), and ever improving stand up game, Diaz is a dangerous opponent for anyone in the UFC’s Lightweight division. Guida is fresh off of his 3-round decision victory of “The Ultimate Fighter” season 6 winner Mac Danzig, in which Guida was able to wear out his opponent with his (Guida’s) relentless pace.

Both fighters possess interesting challenges for each other, and it’ll be interesting to see how the winner of the bout is able to solve those problems. Technically Diaz is the better fighter, but I have never seen anyone who was able to keep up with Guida’s nonstop pace (even Roger Huerta had trouble in their 2007 fight).

I think this one is going to come down to who wants it more, and I believe that Guida is that person. He is riding a two fight streak, and knows that a victory over Diaz could put him into title contention (after Florian gets his shot at Penn that is). Diaz will try to keep Guida at bay using his reach and striking skills. The key to victory for Guida is to get in close and use his wrestling skills combined with his relentless pace to wear Diaz out in the same fashion he did Danzig.

I predict this fight going the full 15 minutes, and Guida earning the W.

Winner: Clay Guida via unanimous decision.

Jon Fitch makes his return to the Octagon following his loss to current UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. Despite being handed his first loss in UFC competition, Fitch put forth one of the most impressive displays of heart and determination I have ever seen. Following the fight even St. Pierre remarked on how amazed he was by Fitch’s durability even going so far as to say “It was like fighting the Terminator. I gave him everything I had, and he kept coming. I kept thinking ‘my god what is it going to take to beat this guy?’”

PRIDE veteran Akihiro Gono is making his third UFC appearance following a split decision loss to Dan Hardy at UFC 89 in October. Prior to that, Gono was awarded submission of the night honors with his armbar submission victory over Tamdan McCory at UFC 78.

After the Welterweight title fight, St. Pierre remarked that Fitch’s loss would be the best thing to ever happen to him (in the same regard that St. Pierre views his loss to Matt Serra), and I completely agree with him, and I believe that Fitch will go into this fight with a newfound dedication and determination that will make him a lot more dangerous than he was in his previous fights.

While Gono is known for his clever and deceptive fighting style, I really don’t think he possesses anything that Fitch hasn’t seen before. In his last fight Gono rocked Dan Hardy on several occasions, but wasn’t able to put him away. In Fitch, Gono faces a more well rounded, and experienced fighter who lasted 5-rounds with the #1 ranked Welterweight in the world. I predict that Fitch will come in eager to make a statement and get back to his winning ways, and unfortunately for Gono he is standing in Fitch’s way. While I’ve learned never to count a fighter out no matter what, I really don’t see Fitch having much trouble with Gono. In fact I see this one ending in the first round.

Winner: Jon Fitch via 1st round TKO.

Tags: Event Previews

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